Research
Data-driven analysis using 155 years of Shiller real return data. No black boxes — the math is always shown.
- Analysis·May 2026
1966 is the worst year to retire in recorded history. It's also the wrong stress test for 2026.
The 1966 retiree defines the 4% rule. But that portfolio was destroyed by inflation, not a crash. Today's risk — starting at CAPE 42 — is different. Same math, different mechanism, different fix.
- Live data·Updated monthly
Safe Withdrawal Rates by Age — Live Tracker
Historical and CAPE-adjusted safe withdrawal rates by retirement age, updated every month using 155 years of Shiller data, with the gap split into method and valuation and the engine checked against Morningstar's and Big ERN's published figures.
- Live data·Updated monthly
Retirement Success Odds by Age — Live Tracker
Monte Carlo-modeled retirement success odds by age, updated monthly using CAPE-adjusted expected returns. Portfolio-only, with Social Security, and with Social Security reduced by the SSA's projected trust-fund cut.
- Methodology·2026
How we calculate retirement success — and how it compares to Pfau & the Trinity Study
No black box. The exact assumptions behind our Monte Carlo and historical backtest, validated cell-by-cell against Wade Pfau's published 2015 update to the Trinity Study — including where we deliberately differ, and why.
- Explainer·2025
Sequence-of-Returns Risk, Visualized
Three retirees. Same $1,000,000. Same $40,000 withdrawal. Same 60/40 portfolio. 1929, 1966, and 2000 cohorts — three completely different outcomes driven entirely by the order in which returns arrived.