Research
Data-driven analysis using 156 years of Shiller real return data. No black boxes — the math is always shown.
- Analysis·May 2026
1966 is the worst year to retire in recorded history. It's also the wrong stress test for 2026.
The 1966 retiree defines the 4% rule. But that portfolio was destroyed by inflation, not a crash. Today's risk — starting at CAPE 42 — is different. Same math, different mechanism, different fix.
- Live data·Updated monthly
Safe Withdrawal Rates by Age — Live Tracker
Historical and CAPE-adjusted safe withdrawal rates by retirement age, updated every month using 156 years of Shiller data. At current valuations, CAPE-adjusted rates diverge sharply from historical averages.
- Methodology·2026
How we calculate retirement success — and how it compares to Pfau & the Trinity Study
No black box. The exact assumptions behind our Monte Carlo and historical backtest, validated cell-by-cell against Wade Pfau's published 2015 update to the Trinity Study — including where we deliberately differ, and why.
- Explainer·2025
Sequence-of-Returns Risk, Visualized
Three retirees. Same $1,000,000. Same $40,000 withdrawal. Same 60/40 portfolio. 1929, 1966, and 2000 cohorts — three completely different outcomes driven entirely by the order in which returns arrived.