Retirement Scenarios
Browse 252 retirement simulations organized by age and portfolio size. Each scenario runs 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations and is cross-checked against 156 years of real market history.
Can't find your exact age or amount? Pick the closest scenario and use the "what moves the needle" section on each page to see how small changes shift your odds.
Common scenarios
Browse all scenarios
Early retirement (FIRE)
Retiring before 56 means covering the years before Medicare and Social Security out of your portfolio. Higher success rates require larger portfolios or lower spending.
Pre-Social Security (ages 57-64)
The window between the rule of 55 and full retirement age 67. Many households use this span to draw down taxable accounts and delay Social Security for larger eventual benefits.
Traditional retirement (65+)
Social Security is claimable, Medicare is active, and RMDs begin at 73. Smaller portfolios can work with full Social Security and pension income layered in.
Educational simulations — not financial advice
Each scenario is a Monte Carlo simulation based on historical return assumptions. Results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future outcomes. These pages do not model Social Security, pensions, or taxes. For those, use the Traditional calculator on the dashboard.