Live SWR Tracker · May 2026
Safe Withdrawal Rates by Retirement Age
At CAPE 42.05, how much could a retiree sustainably withdraw each year? Two perspectives: what history says, and what today's market valuation implies.
| Retirement age | Horizon | Historical SWR | CAPE-adjusted SWR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 60 years | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 40 | 55 years | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| 45 | 50 years | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| 50 | 45 years | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| 55 | 40 years | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| 60 | 35 years | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| 65 | 30 years | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 70 | 25 years | 4.4% | 3.0% |
Methodology
This tracker computes the maximum annual withdrawal rate (as a percentage of starting portfolio) that historically sustained a portfolio for the full retirement horizon with at least 95% success across all tested scenarios.
Historical series (blue line): uses Robert Shiller's 156-year dataset of S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury real total returns, blended at a 60/40 stock/bond allocation. Each starting year from 1871 onward provides one rolling-window test. The SWR is the highest withdrawal where at least 95% of these historical windows survived to the end of the horizon.
CAPE-adjusted series (red dashed line): uses Monte Carlo simulation with an expected return derived from the current Shiller CAPE ratio (42.05). The CAPE earnings yield (1/CAPE = 2.4%) is blended 50/50 with the long-term average real stock return (7%) following standard financial planning practice (Morningstar P-CAPE research, Siegel critique of raw CAPE). This produces a CAPE-adjusted expected stock return of 4.7%. 5,000 Monte Carlo paths are simulated per age point with deterministic seeding for reproducibility. With a 60/40 stock/bond allocation and a 2% real bond return assumption, the blended portfolio expected return is approximately 3.6%.
This methodology follows the framework described in Big ERN's Safe Withdrawal Rate Series Part 18: "The Mechanics of CAPE-Based Withdrawal Rates" (2017), with one key difference: we use a single 50/50 blend of CAPE yield and historical mean rather than exploring multiple CAPE-based rule variants. We chose this single-blend approach for transparency and reproducibility. The Siegel/FAS 142 critique that CAPE may overstate valuations due to accounting changes is acknowledged but not adjusted for.
Assumptions and limitations
- Starting balance: $1,000,000 (the SWR percentage is independent of balance)
- Allocation: 60% stocks / 40% bonds (static, no glide path)
- Planning age: 95
- No Social Security, no pension, no healthcare bridge. This is a standalone portfolio-only SWR.
- Withdrawals are inflation-adjusted (real returns used throughout)
- Results are not personalized financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making retirement decisions.
How to read the chart
The blue line shows what worked historically across 156 years of market data. The red dashed line shows what Monte Carlo simulation suggests at today's market valuation. When the gap between the two lines is large, it means current valuations are elevated relative to history, and sustainable withdrawal rates may be lower than historical averages suggest.
For example, a 65-year-old planning to age 95 has a historical SWR of 4.2% but a CAPE-adjusted SWR of 2.6% at current valuations. The difference of 1.6% reflects the impact of CAPE 42.05 on expected forward returns.
This is an educational illustration based on historical return assumptions and Monte Carlo simulation. Results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future outcomes. Past performance does not predict future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making retirement decisions.