Can I Retire at 65 with $2 Million?
We simulated 5,000 different market scenarios to see how often your money lasts with $80,000/year spending. 85% of the time, it does — all the way to age 95.
What if you spent less or more? Three scenarios show how spending level affects your odds.
| Scenario | Withdrawal | Success |
|---|---|---|
| Lower spending (80%) | $64k/yr | 96% |
| Base case | $80k/yr | 85% |
| Higher spending (125%) | $100k/yr | 62% |
Starting with $2M at age 65. 75/25 stock/bond allocation. All values in today's dollars. Success = portfolio not depleted by age 95.
How did this plan do in real history?
Using 1871–2025 market data, we simulated 126 overlapping 30-year sequences — each starting one year apart. It survived 98% of them.
Survival rate
98% of 126 sequences
Data range
1871–2025
Starting years tested
1871–1996
Worst starting year
1965 (depleted at 94)
Best starting year
1982 ($13.0M remaining)
Median terminal wealth
$4.0M
Rolling-window backtest using Shiller S&P 500 + 10-Year Treasury real returns (1871–2025). 75/25 stock/bond allocation. Bond returns from Shiller Real Total Bond Returns index; results may differ from calculators using Treasury yields. Does not account for Social Security or pension income.
Curious why some cohorts fail while others thrive? Sequence-of-returns risk, visualized →
What moves the needle
Retire at 66 instead
age 66
88%
Spend $75,000/year instead
$75,000/yr
89%
Start with $2,100,000
$2,100,000
89%
Claiming Social Security and planning for RMDs
At age 65, Social Security is either claimable or already in pay status. Full retirement age is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later; delaying to 70 adds approximately 8% per year in permanently higher benefits. Medicare is the standard health insurance program at this age, with automatic enrollment at 65 if Social Security has already begun, or active enrollment in a 7-month window around the 65th birthday.
Required Minimum Distributions from traditional IRA and 401(k) accounts begin at age 73 under the SECURE 2.0 Act. At age 65, RMDs are 8 years away — a window often used for Roth conversions while in a lower tax bracket.
For context, the 2025 SSA maximum monthly benefit for a high earner claiming at age 62 is $2,831, at full retirement age 67 is $4,018, and at age 70 is $5,108. Your actual benefit depends on your lifetime earnings history. Source: ssa.gov
This simulation does not model Social Security benefits, RMD sequencing, Roth conversions, or tax drag. The Traditional calculator on the dashboard layers Social Security and pensions directly into the success probability.
Insights
✓Strong simulated success rate
The base scenario shows a success rate of 85%. Research suggests that plans at or above 85% have historically demonstrated robust survivability across a wide range of market conditions.
Explore related scenarios
Educational use only — not financial advice
This simulation is provided for educational and informational purposes under DOL Interpretive Bulletin 96-1 (Category 4 — general financial educational materials). It is not personalized investment advice, does not account for taxes, and does not consider your complete financial situation. Past market performance does not guarantee future results.
Consult a qualified financial professional before making retirement decisions.
Customize with your actual numbers
This page uses default assumptions. The full calculator lets you:
- Add Social Security and pension income
- Adjust risk tolerance and spending flexibility
- See 156 years of historical backtests