← Back to tools

Allocation Comparison

See how three example allocation models — conservative, balanced, and aggressive — change portfolio survival under your inputs, across three modeling lenses. Example allocations households often consider — educational illustrations, not recommendations or personalized advice.

Your inputs

$
$
yr
yr
%

Implied withdrawal rate: 4.00% · Plans to age 95

Conservative

30% stocks · 70% bonds & cash

Example model

Standard MC
84%
Regime-aware MC
89%
Historical
88%

Share of outcomes the portfolio lasts the full horizon.

Balanced

60% stocks · 40% bonds & cash

Example model

Standard MC
84%
Regime-aware MC
94%
Historical
97%

Share of outcomes the portfolio lasts the full horizon.

Aggressive

80% stocks · 20% bonds & cash

Example model

Standard MC
84%
Regime-aware MC
95%
Historical
97%

Share of outcomes the portfolio lasts the full horizon.

Why the three numbers differ

Standard MCdraws each year’s return independently. That understates how a stock-heavy mix compounds and weathers good-and-bad multi-year runs, so its allocation curve looks unusually flat.

Regime-aware MC resamples real multi-year stretches of history (inflation spells, recoveries) from 1871–2025, so the allocation mix moves the result more. With about 155 overlapping years — roughly a dozen independent decade-long blocks — it re-expresses the historical record as a smooth distribution: it adds presentation, not new information.

Historical replays every actual 1871–2025 return sequence in rolling windows — the most direct read of the record, limited to sequences that actually happened.

None of these predicts the future. They are educational illustrations, not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice.

A higher stock share has historically produced a higher median outcome, but also a wider range of results and more exposure to a poor sequence of early returns. A lower stock share trades growth for steadier outcomes. Neither is “better” in general — the right trade-offs depend on your full situation. These are example models for education, not recommendations. A qualified financial advisor can help weigh what fits your circumstances.

How we calculate these numbers — the exact assumptions, validated against published research.

Frequently asked questions

How does asset allocation affect retirement success?
Allocation changes both the growth and the volatility of a portfolio. Higher stock allocations have historically raised long-run survival rates for spending plans, but with larger short-term swings and deeper drawdowns. The Allocation Comparison shows how example conservative, balanced, and aggressive mixes change simulated portfolio survival across three modeling lenses.
What asset allocation is appropriate for retirement?
There is no single correct allocation; a suitable mix depends on time horizon, risk tolerance, and how much spending flexibility a household has. This tool illustrates the trade-offs of example allocations rather than prescribing one, so the historical range of outcomes for each is visible.