April 2026: How This Month's Market Affects Your Retirement Plan
Last updated 2026-10-11 · Baseline: 2026-01 (CAPE 39.64)
Revised Oct 11, 2026: methodology update, figures recomputed. See notes.
S&P 500 YTD
-3.8%
10Y Treasury
4.31%
Inflation (YoY)
2.4%
Shiller CAPE
38.1
Adjusted Return
4.8%
S&P 500 Level
6,582.69
S&P 500 is down 3.8% YTD, 10-Year Treasury at 4.31%, inflation at 2.4%. Retirement success rates are roughly unchanged across profiles.
Impact on 6 Retirement Profiles
| Profile | Baseline | Current | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65 | 99% | 99% | 0pp |
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement | 95% | 95% | 0pp |
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67 | 84% | 85% | 0pp |
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security | 100% | 100% | 0pp |
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50 | 95% | 95% | 0pp |
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security | 100% | 100% | 0pp |
What Moves the Needle Most Right Now
Trends
Trend data will appear here as more monthly reports publish — this is the first tracked month.
Full Scenario Breakdown
Reduced/base/higher scenarios, spend reconciliation, and needle movers for each profile.
Early career saverAge 30 · Retire at 650pp▾
$150K saved · $50K/yr spending
lean
100%
$40K/yr
base
99%
$50K/yr
fat
97%
$63K/yr
Mid-career, on trackAge 45 · Retire at 620pp▾
$600K saved · $60K/yr spending
lean
98%
$48K/yr
base
95%
$60K/yr
fat
89%
$75K/yr
Catch-up saverAge 55 · Retire at 670pp▾
$400K saved · $48K/yr spending
lean
94%
$38K/yr
base
85%
$48K/yr
fat
69%
$60K/yr
Comfortable nest eggAge 50 · Retire at 650pp▾
$1.0M saved · $70K/yr spending
reduced
100%
$56K/yr
base
100%
$70K/yr
higher
98%
$88K/yr
Early retirement goalAge 40 · Retire at 500pp▾
$800K saved · $48K/yr spending
lean
98%
$38K/yr
base
95%
$48K/yr
fat
88%
$60K/yr
Near retirementAge 60 · Retire at 670pp▾
$1.5M saved · $80K/yr spending
reduced
100%
$33K/yr
base
100%
$42K/yr
higher
99%
$52K/yr
These are default profiles. Want to see your numbers?
Run a free Monte Carlo simulation with your actual age, savings, and spending.
Run Your Own SimulationNotes
Results are based on 91+ rolling windows of 155 years of historical market data (Shiller) and 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations per profile. All figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).
The Monte Carlo resamples blocks of that history. For the first 10 simulated years the stock return is shifted to compound at a rate implied by this month's Shiller CAPE (a 50/50 blend of 1/CAPE and a 7% long-run real return); later years use history unadjusted. The baseline is computed the same way with 2026-01's CAPE, so "vs baseline" reflects how valuations have moved since then. Each profile keeps a fixed starting balance, so stock-market gains or losses are not reflected here; only the valuation reading moves these odds. Because the adjusted period starts today, profiles still years from retirement are much less affected than those retiring now.
This is educational information only and not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.