May 2026: How This Month's Market Affects Your Retirement Plan

Last updated 2026-05-05 · Baseline: 2026-01

S&P 500 YTD

5.2%

10Y Treasury

4.39%

Inflation (YoY)

3.3%

Shiller CAPE

42.0

Adjusted Return

4.7%

S&P 500 Level

7,200.75

S&P 500 is up 5.2% YTD, 10-Year Treasury at 4.39%, inflation at 3.3%. Retirement success rates are roughly unchanged across profiles.

Impact on 6 Retirement Profiles

Profile	Baseline	Current	Delta	Historical
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65	90%	90%	0pp	100%
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement	84%	84%	0pp	100%
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67	75%	75%	0pp	91%
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security	98%	98%	0pp	100%
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50	85%	85%	0pp	100%
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security	99%	99%	0pp	100%

What Moves the Needle Most Right Now

Reduce spending $5,000/year+2.9pp avg (0-7pp range)

One more year of work+2.1pp avg (0-5pp range)

Detailed Results by Profile

Early career saver

Age 30 · $150Ksaved · Retire at 65· $50K/yr spending

0pp

lean

94%

$40K/yr

base

90%

$50K/yr

fat

85%

$63K/yr

+1 year: +2pp-$5K/yr: +1pp

Run with your own numbers →

Mid-career, on track

Age 45 · $600Ksaved · Retire at 62· $60K/yr spending

0pp

lean

90%

$48K/yr

base

84%

$60K/yr

fat

73%

$75K/yr

+1 year: +2pp-$5K/yr: +4pp

Run with your own numbers →

Catch-up saver

Age 55 · $400Ksaved · Retire at 67· $48K/yr spending

0pp

lean

87%

$38K/yr

base

75%

$48K/yr

fat

55%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +5pp-$5K/yr: +7pp

Run with your own numbers →

Comfortable nest egg

Age 50 · $1.0Msaved · Retire at 65· $70K/yr spending

0pp

reduced

100%

$56K/yr

base

98%

$70K/yr

higher

92%

$88K/yr

The portfolio covers the full $70K/yr until Social Security ($30K/yr) begins at age 67, which then reduces the withdrawal. The tiles show the pre-Social-Security withdrawal.

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: +1pp

Run with your own numbers →

Early retirement goal

Age 40 · $800Ksaved · Retire at 50· $48K/yr spending

0pp

lean

92%

$38K/yr

base

85%

$48K/yr

fat

76%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +3pp-$5K/yr: +4pp

Run with your own numbers →

Near retirement

Age 60 · $1.5Msaved · Retire at 67· $80K/yr spending

0pp

reduced

100%

$33K/yr

base

99%

$42K/yr

higher

97%

$52K/yr

Year one: $42K portfolio withdrawal + $38K Social Security = $80K/yr spending. The tiles show the portfolio's share, not total spending.

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: 0pp

Run with your own numbers →

These are default profiles. Want to see your numbers?

Run a free Monte Carlo simulation with your actual age, savings, and spending.

Run Your Own Simulation

Results are based on 91+ rolling windows of 156 years of historical market data (Shiller) and 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations per profile. All figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).

This is educational information only and not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.