July 2026: How This Month's Market Affects Your Retirement Plan
Last updated 2026-07-01 · Baseline: 2026-01
S&P 500 YTD
9.6%
10Y Treasury
—
Inflation (YoY)
4.2%
Shiller CAPE
42.8
Adjusted Return
4.7%
S&P 500 Level
7,499.36
S&P 500 is up 9.6% YTD, inflation at 4.2%. This has improved retirement success rates by an average of 1.9 percentage points across profiles.
Impact on 6 Retirement Profiles
| Profile | Baseline | Current | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65 | 90% | 94% | +4pp |
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement | 84% | 87% | +3pp |
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67 | 75% | 76% | +1pp |
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security | 98% | 99% | +1pp |
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50 | 85% | 88% | +3pp |
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security | 99% | 99% | 0pp |
What Moves the Needle Most Right Now
Detailed Results by Profile
Early career saver
Age 30 · $150Ksaved · Retire at 65· $50K/yr spending
lean
97%
$40K/yr
base
94%
$50K/yr
fat
88%
$63K/yr
Mid-career, on track
Age 45 · $600Ksaved · Retire at 62· $60K/yr spending
lean
93%
$48K/yr
base
87%
$60K/yr
fat
75%
$75K/yr
Catch-up saver
Age 55 · $400Ksaved · Retire at 67· $48K/yr spending
lean
88%
$38K/yr
base
76%
$48K/yr
fat
56%
$60K/yr
Comfortable nest egg
Age 50 · $1.0Msaved · Retire at 65· $70K/yr spending
reduced
100%
$56K/yr
base
99%
$70K/yr
higher
94%
$88K/yr
Early retirement goal
Age 40 · $800Ksaved · Retire at 50· $48K/yr spending
lean
95%
$38K/yr
base
88%
$48K/yr
fat
78%
$60K/yr
Near retirement
Age 60 · $1.5Msaved · Retire at 67· $80K/yr spending
reduced
100%
$33K/yr
base
99%
$42K/yr
higher
97%
$52K/yr
These are default profiles. Want to see your numbers?
Run a free Monte Carlo simulation with your actual age, savings, and spending.
Run Your Own SimulationResults are based on 91+ rolling windows of 156 years of historical market data (Shiller) and 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations per profile. All figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).
This is educational information only and not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.