July 2026: How This Month's Market Affects Your Retirement Plan

Last updated 2026-08-04 · Baseline: 2026-01

S&P 500 YTD

9.6%

10Y Treasury

—

Inflation (YoY)

4.2%

Shiller CAPE

40.6

Adjusted Return

4.7%

S&P 500 Level

7,499.36

S&P 500 is up 9.6% YTD, inflation at 4.2%. This has improved retirement success rates by an average of 2.0 percentage points across profiles.

Impact on 6 Retirement Profiles

Profile	Baseline	Current	Delta	Historical
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65	90%	94%	+4pp	100%
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement	84%	87%	+3pp	100%
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67	75%	76%	+1pp	91%
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security	98%	99%	+1pp	100%
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50	85%	88%	+3pp	100%
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security	99%	99%	0pp	100%

What Moves the Needle Most Right Now

Reduce spending $5,000/year+2.6pp avg (0-7pp range)

One more year of work+2.3pp avg (0-6pp range)

Trends

April 2026 – July 2026 · 4 months tracked

Shiller CAPE ratio40.6(+2.5 since April 2026)

April 2026July 2026

S&P 500 YTD

9.6%+13.4pp

10Y Treasury

4.46%+0.15pp

Inflation (YoY)

4.2%+1.7pp

Profile	Latest	Since first tracked
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65	94%	0pp
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement	87%	0pp
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67	76%	0pp
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security	99%	0pp
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50	88%	0pp
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security	99%	0pp

Full Scenario Breakdown

Reduced/base/higher scenarios, spend reconciliation, and needle movers for each profile.

Early career saverAge 30 · Retire at 65+4pp▾

$150K saved · $50K/yr spending

lean

97%

$40K/yr

base

94%

$50K/yr

fat

88%

$63K/yr

+1 year: +2pp-$5K/yr: +2pp

Run with your own numbers →

Mid-career, on trackAge 45 · Retire at 62+3pp▾

$600K saved · $60K/yr spending

lean

93%

$48K/yr

base

87%

$60K/yr

fat

76%

$75K/yr

+1 year: +3pp-$5K/yr: +3pp

Run with your own numbers →

Catch-up saverAge 55 · Retire at 67+1pp▾

$400K saved · $48K/yr spending

lean

88%

$38K/yr

base

76%

$48K/yr

fat

56%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +6pp-$5K/yr: +7pp

Run with your own numbers →

Comfortable nest eggAge 50 · Retire at 65+1pp▾

$1.0M saved · $70K/yr spending

reduced

100%

$56K/yr

base

99%

$70K/yr

higher

94%

$88K/yr

+1 year: +1pp-$5K/yr: +1pp

Run with your own numbers →

Early retirement goalAge 40 · Retire at 50+3pp▾

$800K saved · $48K/yr spending

lean

95%

$38K/yr

base

88%

$48K/yr

fat

79%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +3pp-$5K/yr: +3pp

Run with your own numbers →

Near retirementAge 60 · Retire at 670pp▾

$1.5M saved · $80K/yr spending

reduced

100%

$33K/yr

base

99%

$42K/yr

higher

98%

$52K/yr

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: 0pp

Run with your own numbers →

These are default profiles. Want to see your numbers?

Run a free Monte Carlo simulation with your actual age, savings, and spending.

Run Your Own Simulation

Results are based on 91+ rolling windows of 156 years of historical market data (Shiller) and 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations per profile. All figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).

This is educational information only and not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.