June 2026: How This Month's Market Affects Your Retirement Plan

Last updated 2026-10-11 · Baseline: 2026-01 (CAPE 39.64)

Revised Oct 11, 2026: methodology update, figures recomputed. See notes.

S&P 500 YTD

11.2%

10Y Treasury

4.46%

Inflation (YoY)

3.8%

Shiller CAPE

40.5

Adjusted Return

4.7%

S&P 500 Level

7,609.78

S&P 500 is up 11.2% YTD, 10-Year Treasury at 4.46%, inflation at 3.8%. Retirement success rates are roughly unchanged across profiles.

Impact on 6 Retirement Profiles

Profile	Baseline	Current	Delta	Historical
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65	99%	99%	0pp	100%
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement	95%	95%	0pp	100%
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67	84%	84%	0pp	91%
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security	100%	100%	0pp	100%
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50	95%	95%	0pp	100%
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security	100%	100%	0pp	100%

What Moves the Needle Most Right Now

One more year of work+1.5pp avg (0-5pp range)

Reduce spending $5,000/year+1.5pp avg (0-6pp range)

Trends

April 2026 – June 2026 · 3 months tracked

Shiller CAPE ratio40.5(+2.4 since April 2026)

April 2026June 2026

S&P 500 YTD

11.2%+15.0pp

10Y Treasury

4.46%+0.15pp

Inflation (YoY)

3.8%+1.4pp

Profile	Latest	Since first tracked
Early career saver 30-year-old just getting started, aiming for a traditional retirement at 65	99%	0pp
Mid-career, on track 45-year-old with solid savings, targeting early 60s retirement	95%	0pp
Catch-up saver 55-year-old behind on savings, conservative approach to 67	84%	0pp
Comfortable nest egg 50-year-old with $1M saved, planning Traditional retirement at 65 with Social Security	100%	0pp
Early retirement goal 40-year-old targeting aggressive early retirement at 50	95%	0pp
Near retirement 60-year-old with $1.5M, planning Traditional retirement at 67 with Social Security	100%	0pp

Full Scenario Breakdown

Reduced/base/higher scenarios, spend reconciliation, and needle movers for each profile.

Early career saverAge 30 · Retire at 650pp▾

$150K saved · $50K/yr spending

lean

100%

$40K/yr

base

99%

$50K/yr

fat

97%

$63K/yr

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: 0pp

Run with your own numbers →

Mid-career, on trackAge 45 · Retire at 620pp▾

$600K saved · $60K/yr spending

lean

98%

$48K/yr

base

95%

$60K/yr

fat

89%

$75K/yr

+1 year: +2pp-$5K/yr: +1pp

Run with your own numbers →

Catch-up saverAge 55 · Retire at 670pp▾

$400K saved · $48K/yr spending

lean

94%

$38K/yr

base

84%

$48K/yr

fat

69%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +5pp-$5K/yr: +6pp

Run with your own numbers →

Comfortable nest eggAge 50 · Retire at 650pp▾

$1.0M saved · $70K/yr spending

reduced

100%

$56K/yr

base

100%

$70K/yr

higher

98%

$88K/yr

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: 0pp

Run with your own numbers →

Early retirement goalAge 40 · Retire at 500pp▾

$800K saved · $48K/yr spending

lean

98%

$38K/yr

base

95%

$48K/yr

fat

88%

$60K/yr

+1 year: +1pp-$5K/yr: +2pp

Run with your own numbers →

Near retirementAge 60 · Retire at 670pp▾

$1.5M saved · $80K/yr spending

reduced

100%

$33K/yr

base

100%

$42K/yr

higher

99%

$52K/yr

+1 year: 0pp-$5K/yr: 0pp

Run with your own numbers →

These are default profiles. Want to see your numbers?

Run a free Monte Carlo simulation with your actual age, savings, and spending.

Run Your Own Simulation

Notes

Correction · 2026-08-04

Shiller CAPE for this month was updated from 42.84 to 40.49.

This report originally showed a CAPE ratio taken from multpl.com, which computes the ratio against the latest daily price. These reports now use Robert Shiller's published series, which uses the month's average price. The two differ by roughly 1-2 points in a trending market. The CAPE figure and the simulated success rates it feeds have been restated onto the Shiller basis so the full series is measured one consistent way. The success rates on this page were also recomputed with the current simulation engine. This report was first published using independent random return draws; since June 2026 the model resamples blocks of actual historical return sequences, which preserves inflation regimes and mean reversion. That change, not the CAPE revision, accounts for most of the movement in the percentages below.

Source: Robert Shiller, ie_data.xls (monthly average price basis)

Results are based on 91+ rolling windows of 155 years of historical market data (Shiller) and 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations per profile. All figures are in today's dollars (inflation-adjusted).

The Monte Carlo resamples blocks of that history. For the first 10 simulated years the stock return is shifted to compound at a rate implied by this month's Shiller CAPE (a 50/50 blend of 1/CAPE and a 7% long-run real return); later years use history unadjusted. The baseline is computed the same way with 2026-01's CAPE, so "vs baseline" reflects how valuations have moved since then. Each profile keeps a fixed starting balance, so stock-market gains or losses are not reflected here; only the valuation reading moves these odds. Because the adjusted period starts today, profiles still years from retirement are much less affected than those retiring now.

This is educational information only and not personalized financial, tax, or legal advice. Results are hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions and may not reflect actual outcomes. Consult a qualified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.